Script · Not a recorded lecture · Week 10

The interesting result selected from twenty tests

Balance study-design risks and recognize selective reporting.

Written teaching script: This is the narration and demonstration plan for an eventual recorded lecture. No audio or video is claimed to exist. Mathematical and editorial review will precede filming.

Opening

Imagine testing twenty unrelated hypotheses, reporting the smallest p-value, and neglecting to mention the other nineteen. You have not necessarily made a discovery. You may have simply discovered the minimum function.

Teaching narrative

Type I error concerns rejection under a true null. Type II error and power refer to a specific false null alternative and the procedure's probability of identifying it. Even correct individual p-values can support a misleading conclusion when the family of comparisons is hidden.

A pre-specified test can be calibrated for a five-percent false-rejection rate. But examining many tests and selecting a striking result increases the chance of finding something unusual even when the nulls are true.

Bonferroni adjusts a familywise decision threshold by dividing the desired error level by the number of tests. False-discovery-rate methods aim at another target: the expected proportion of false discoveries among rejected hypotheses under specified conditions.

Exploration is valuable. The wrongdoing is presenting exploratory selections as though they were independent confirmatory tests. Pre-registration, validation data, full reporting, and honest effect sizes make the work more useful.

Before the experiment

What is the chance of at least one false rejection in twenty independent true-null tests, each at alpha=.05?

Live demonstration

Compute 1−.95^20 in R, then apply p.adjust with Bonferroni and Benjamini–Hochberg to a small set of illustrative p-values.

Exit question

Explain the difference between an exploratory result and a confirmatory claim.

Assigned reading for this lecture

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